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Gartner 预测 : 2023 年将实现国民人口 95% 的 5G 覆盖率
时间：2020-07-30 15:29:13
文章发布：李阳
原创作者：未知
来源：互联网

根据全球领先的信息技术研究和顾问公司 Gartner 最新预测，2020 年全球 5G 网络基础架构市场营收将接近翻倍，达到 81 亿美元。

2020 年无线基础架构市场总营收将下滑 4.4%，为 381 亿美元。2019 年通信服务提供商 (CSP)对 5G 网络基础架构的投资占无线基础架构市场总营收的 10.4%。而这一投资比例在 2020 年将达到 21.3%。（参见表 1）

Gartner 高级研究总监 Kosei Takiishi 表示：“随着越来越多的通信服务提供商通过重新利用当前资产（包括无线电频谱带宽，基站，核心网络和传输网络，以及将 LTE/4G 支出过渡到维护模式），以优先处理 5G 项目，使得无线基础架构领域的投资继续保持增长势头。早期的 5G 使用者正在推动通信服务提供商之间更大的竞争。此外，政府以及监管机构正在促进移动网络的发展，并押注移动网络将成为许多行业广泛经济增长的催化剂和倍增器。”

通信服务提供商之间日益激烈的竞争加速了 5G 的采用速度。新的 O-RAN（开放式无线电接入网络）和 vRAN(虚拟化 RAN)生态系统未来可能会通过提供极具性价比和灵活性的 5G 产品，颠覆现有的供应商绑定模式，并促进 5G 的采用。Gartner 预测，大中华地区（中国大陆，中国香港，中国台湾），成熟的亚太地区，北美以及日本等地的通信服务提供商，将于 2023 年实现国民人口 95% 的 5G 覆盖率。

表 1： 2019-2020 全球无线基础架构市场支出预测 （单位：百万美元）

注：四舍五入后，数字之和可能并不完全等于总计数值

来源：Gartner(2020 年 7 月)

“尽管受新冠疫情的影响，2020 年 5G 方面的投资增长率略有下滑（不包括大中华地区和日本），但各地通信服务提供商正在迅速将新的和可自由支配的资金投入于建设 5G 网络和 5G 平台。” Takiishi 先生表示。

“从短期来看，大中华地区在 5G 发展方面处于世界领先地位，2020 年全球投资的 49.4% 都来自于该地区。中国制造的极具性价比的基础架构设备，再加上国家的支持以及减少的监管壁垒，为中国主要的通信服务提供商快速实现 5G 覆盖铺平了道路。” Takiishi 先生表示，“但是，其他那些较早采用且技术娴熟的国家也紧随其后。”

Gartner 预测，由于人口对通信网络的高度依赖将引发行为改变，通信服务提供商将利用这一变化，因此 5G 领域的投资在 2021 年将温和反弹。2022 年 5G 领域的投资将超过 LTE/4G。

通信服务提供商将逐步在其非独立（NSA）5G 网络内添加独立（SA）功能。Gartner 预测，到 2023 年全球将有 15% 的通信服务提供商运行不依赖 4G 网络基础架构的独立 5G 网络。这将使无线市场的投资迅速从 LTE/4G 领域转移开来，同时传统 RAN 基础架构领域的支出也将迅速下滑。


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