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为什么那么多O2O都死了,外卖和打车还活着?
时间:2016-01-11 11:07:25
文章发布:
原创作者:未知
来源:互联网

      近来看到新闻说,很多O2O都死了,其实他们是应该死的,如果他们不死,那么就不符合自然界的发展规律了。

 

      他们为什么会死呢?是因为他们太聪明了。这些创业者都以为能和滴滴、美团一样,只要拉来投资烧烧钱,就能估值上百亿,就能成功,他们太聪明了,可是现实却不是这样的,即使他们能烧的和滴滴、美团一样的钱,他们照样还是会失败,他们的失败不是因为没有钱,不是因为创业者不够努力,不是因为他们不会创业,他们的失败是因为项目不行。

      为什么说项目不行?这个主要是看项目本身的出发点对用户没有价值,现在很多媒体把它称为“刚需”,不过在我看来不是刚需的问题,而是是不是常态的问题,吃喝拉撒是刚需,而打车和外卖不是刚需,是常态需求,一个用户可以不打车,但是不能不吃饭,所以说吃喝拉撒是刚需,而外卖和打车是常态需求,而打车和外卖能继续下去是满足了人类的常态需求。

      什么是常态需求,就是这个需求在一个人生活中所占的比重,比如除了真正的刚需吃喝拉撒之外,出行就是用户生活中占比很常态的需求,除了打车之外,还有坐火车、飞机、公交车、步行等很多需求,其中占比大的需求步行是第一位的,任何人从出生到学会走路都是在步行,步行在出行需求中占比的份额大,其次是公交车,再接着是打车,再接着是火车,最后是飞机,甚至未来的飞船,随着出行工具的速度变化和发展,整个人类群体的需求变化是下降的,也就是说一个人的出行需求中,步行的次数多,接着是公交车,再接着是打车,然后是火车,最后是飞机,很多人可能一辈子都没有坐过飞机,坐过火车,但是不可能一辈子没有打过车,所以打车是一个非常常态的需求,或者说打车这个需求在人类出行中占着比较高的份额。

      但是眼下的很多O2O项目需求都不是常态需求,比如上门按摩,上门做指甲,回家吃饭……这些需求都不是常态需求,只是偶尔需求,我们可以在马路边随机抽查1000个人进行调查,在过去成长的时间里,有没有做过上门按摩,有没有喊过上面做美甲,我们可以仔细思考一下,可以说100%人都不会有这样的经历,主要原因还是因为这样的需求不是我们的常态需求。其次就是观念的问题,中国这个社会目前的主流人群是70后,80后,90后,这些人群相对来说比较保守,找个人上面帮你按摩,很多人都不会这么多。

      比如说我最近看到的一个项目,叫回家吃饭,它的作用就是你下班了没有饭吃,可以通过App付费到附近的某个陌生人家里吃饭,它的需求主要是解决年轻人上班忙没有时间做饭,而一些年龄大的退休老人,在家做饭又没有人吃,同时还可以增加一些收入,这个想法是好的,但是现实却不是这样。

      首先,上陌生人家里吃饭,不是人类群体的常态需求,因为主流人群中吃饭高频率的地方还是在家里吃饭,接着是饭店,最后才是朋友家,至于付钱到陌生人家里吃饭,估计100%人都没有过。其次,这个需求违背了马斯洛需求中的安全需求和信任需求,陌生人总是不信任的,何况到一个陌生人家里吃饭,即使是很熟悉的朋友,能高频率在一块吃饭的又有多少呢?最后是整个人类群体的习惯,目前中国大部分主流人群还是70后,80后,90后,受中国儒家文化的影响,到一个陌生人家里吃饭,大家还是不习惯的。另外和他们的推广人员聊过,他们的想法是想颠覆饭店,饭店的这种形式在中国发展了好几千年,也不是一朝一夕可以颠覆的,所以这样的项目很难成功,即使他们很有钱,不停的地推,不停的在地铁上做广告,也是很难成功。

      现在的很多O2O违背了这些习惯和常态需求,所以必定失败。那么为什么打车和外卖却火了?其实他们的火,不是因为他们改变了人类的常态需求,而是优化了人类的常态需求,并把这些需求互联网化了。

      我们可以仔细思考一下,打车出行是人类本来就有的常态需求,没有打车软件时,我们打车是路边招手或者电话叫车,打完车结束的时候使用现金支付。但是现在打车呢?通过App叫车,可以看到周边车的位置,同时可以等着车到了身边,再上车,优化了我们的时间安排,同时,避免了付钱的找零问题。所以说App打车并没有改变我们的出行中的常态需求,只是通过互联网的功能,优化了出行的方式。

具体优化了哪些呢?我可以列一下:

      1.偏远地区到的车的问题,在过去到偏远的地方几乎没有出租车可以打。

      2. 打车的时候遇到的拒载问题,通过App打车拒载降低了很多,过去拒载只能投诉,而且不管用。

      3. 打车费用高的问题,过去的打车费用越来越高,App打车降低了费用,如滴滴快车、Uber。

      4. 找零钱问题,遇到没有零钱找,真是痛苦的事情。

      5. 物品丢失问题,过去打车东西丢了,不要发票是找不回来的,现在能知道司机的联系方式可以找到。

      6. 时间等待问题,过去打车在路边招手,不知道啥时候能打到车,可能很快打到车,可能等半个小时都打不到。

      7.还可能其他方面的问题。

      所以说滴滴打车的火爆,不是因为他烧钱烧成功的,而且因为这个项目押对了领域,滴滴打车和UBer并没有颠覆传统的打车这个出行方式,只是通过移动互联网的定位、支付等功能优化了打车的体验。同理,外卖也一样,过去叫外卖的方式和叫车的方式类似,电话叫外卖,见面付现金,而饿了么、美团等通过移动互联网的功能,优化了叫外卖的方式,所以获得了成功。

      其实在当下的很多O2O项目中,只有一部分项目是能成功的,另外大部分项目都是必须失败的,只有项目符合了整个群体社会中50%的人类需求,才有可能成功,而反观哪些必定失败的项目,这些项目往往都是个人需求的放大版,而不是群体需求,也就是说现在很多创业者把自己的需求放大后当成群体的需求来进行创业,那么都是必定失败的,创业是一件非常 理智的事情,容不得个人的主动需求,只有理智的认识到整个群体的需求,去满足群体或者优化群体的需求,才有可能成功。

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